Study wrapper · #1300
Glycemia-based predictors of T2D development in adults with obesity and prediabetes: SURMOUNT-1 post hoc analysis.
Editor's note
Post hoc analysis of the SURMOUNT-1 prediabetes cohort, so the predictive-criteria comparison is exploratory and was not a prespecified endpoint. The one-hour OGTT threshold had high sensitivity but only 25 percent specificity, meaning it flags many people who would not have progressed. The tirzepatide risk reduction is consistent across all three criteria and matches the headline three-year SURMOUNT-1 result. SURMOUNT-1 was sponsored by Eli Lilly, and several authors are company employees.
Plain-language abstract
In a follow-up look at the three-year SURMOUNT-1 trial, researchers tested which blood-sugar measures best flag adults with obesity and prediabetes who go on to develop type 2 diabetes. A one-hour glucose reading above 155 mg/dL after a sugar drink caught the most future cases, though with many false alarms. Tirzepatide lowered the risk of new diabetes by roughly 90 to 99 percent in the higher-risk groups and by 68 to 91 percent in everyone else.