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Study wrapper · #1392

Sleeve gastrectomy versus tirzepatide to improve survival among patients with stage 5 CKD: A Markov decision analysis.

Di Napoli M, Morton K, Evensky C, et al. American journal of surgery. 2026.

Editor's note

A decision-analytic model, not observed patient outcomes — projections inherit every input assumption, including the durability of drug-induced weight loss and perioperative mortality estimates in a high-risk CKD population. The core message, that magnitude and durability of weight loss drive survival in stage 5 CKD, is defensible; the specific life-year figures are not measurements. Relevant to transplant-eligibility weight thresholds, where this surgery-versus-incretin tradeoff is a live question.

Plain-language abstract

A simulation study asked whether sleeve gastrectomy or tirzepatide gives patients with stage 5 kidney disease and morbid obesity longer projected survival. The model increasingly favored surgery as starting BMI rose above about 38-40, projecting up to 3.2 extra life-years at BMI 50; both options outperformed diet and exercise alone.